NBA Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Derrick Rose
Most "valuable" player differs greatly from most "outstanding" player.  Interestingly, it may add to Derrick Rose's MVP case that he would not be the MOP.  When you acknowledge that James had by far the best season, then you begin to dissect what Rose brought to the table to make Chicago the best team in the NBA.  The debate, for me, came down to Rose versus Howard.  The arguments were that without Howard, Orlando would arguably be the worst defensive team in the NBA, yet with him they were one of the best, and for Chicago, nobody would shoot on that team if not for Rose.  Coupling Rose's improved defense with his dynamic offense and Howard's improved offense with his dominant defense, it is difficult to differentiate which player has a greater impact on his team.  Essentially, Howard loses the award more than Rose wins it as Dwight is often too complacent and the does more to hurt his team than Derrick does (technical fouls>suspension).

2. Dwight Howard

3. Dirk Nowitzki

4. Dwyane Wade

5. LeBron James

Rookie of the Year:
Blake Griffin

Do I need to explain anything?

2. DeMarcus Cousins

3. Landry Fields

Defensive Player of the Year:
Dwight Howard
(See above)

2. Tyson Chandler

3. Tony Allen

Coach of the Year:
George Karl
The most impressive part of George Karl's coaching performance this season was that he essentially coached two completely different teams, in two completely different situations, in two completely different systems, and equally as impressive.  Prior to the Carmelo trade, Karl kept a team that 9 out of 10 times would have mailed it in competitive.  Following the trade, Denver became a top defensive team, developed great offensive balance, and played with more energy than anyone else.  More than anything else, it has to say something about the coach when a team trades its two best players for 75 cents on the dollar and becomes more feared.

2. Doug Collins

3. Lionel Hollins

Most Improved Player:
LaMarcus Aldridge
For the first few years of his career, there were numerous criticisms of LaMarcus Aldridge's game: he was an outside big, he wasn't a great defender, and he wasn't a leader.  Following Brandon Roy's surgery most people wrote Portland off, and rightfully so.  The only reason that the Blazers did not fall off the map was because of Aldridge's improvements.  He became a dominant post player, he improved his defense, he became a fantastic leader.  Aldridge put Portland on his back and carried them to places people thought they could not go.

2. Derrick Rose

3. Tyler Hansbrough

Sixth Man of the Year:
Lamar Odom
Odom separates himself from Terry and Crawford mostly because of his versatility and his value to his team.  Lamar brings an aspect to the Lakers that they do not get anywhere else and is essential to the team's success.  Terry and Crawford both pack scoring punch off of the bench but neither contributes much else.
2. Jason Terry
3. Jamal Crawford
All-NBA:
First Team:
Derrick Rose
Dwyane Wade
LeBron James
Dirk Nowitzki
Dwight Howard
Second Team:
Russell Westbrook
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
LaMarcus Aldridge
Amaré Stoudemire
Third Team:
Chris Paul
Manu Ginobili
Kevin Love
Zach Randolph
Pau Gasol
All-NBA Defense:
First-Team:
Rajon Rondo
Tony Allen
Andre Iguodala
Kevin Garnett
Dwight Howard
Second-Team:
Chris Paul
Derrick Rose
Grant Hill
LeBron James
Tyson Chandler
All-NBA Rookie:
First-Team:
John Wall
Landry Fields
Greg Monroe
Blake Griffin
DeMarcus Cousins
Second-Team:
Eric Bledsoe
Wes Johnson
Paul George
Gary Neal
Derrick Favors

Top 5 Individuals Performance of the First Round

Honorable Mentions:
-Derrick Rose, Game 1 (39 pts, 6 rbs, 6 ast, 10/23 fgs, 0/9 3pts, 19/21 fts)
-Dwyane Wade, Game 3 (32 pts, 10 rbs, 8 ast, 10/19 fgs, 12/12 fts)
-Dirk Nowitzki, Game 6 (33 pts, 11 rbs, 11/17 fgs, 0/1 3pts, 11/11 fts)
-Kevin Durant, Game 1 (41 pts, 9 rbs, 13/22 fgs, 3/6 3pts, 12/15 fts)
-Zach Randolph, Game 1 (25 pts, 14 rbs, 10/15 fgs, 0/1 3pts, 5/8 fts)


5. Dwight Howard, Game 1 (46 pts, 19 rbs, 8 tos, 16/23 fgs, 14/22 fts)
If Orlando had won the game, it would be nearly impossible to keep Howard's Game 1 performance out of the top 3.  Dwight's 46 points and 19 rebounds both remain as the  top outputs so far this postseason.  While statistically the showing was outstanding, the Magic were rarely competing and never in control of the game.  It does mean something to carry the team and all Dwight was able to do was keep them afloat.


4. Carmelo Anthony, Game 2 (42 pts, 17 rbs, 6 ast, 14/30 fgs, 4/8 3pts, 10/11 fts)
While it is difficult to separate Carmelo Anthony's Game 2 performance and Dwight Howard's Game 1 on a statistical basis, a few intangible factors go into ranking Melo over Dwight.  First, while Howard dominated his game, he never took over like Carmelo did.  Anthony put up big numbers all game long but in the 4th quarter of a tight game on the road (without Amaré and Chauncey), he pushed his teammates' struggles to the curb and carried the Knicks to what should have been a meaningful victory (anyone who knows basketball saw that the refs stole that game from New York).  Second, Howard's team was the favorite at home and Carmelo's was the underdog on the road.  Carmelo putting up big numbers against Paul Pierce and the C's is more impressive than Dwight Howard against Jason Collins, Zaza Pachulia, and Hilton Armstrong.

3. Rajon Rondo, Game 3 (15 pts, 11 rbs, 20 ast, 5/13 fgs, 5/6 fts)

Rajon Rondo's first round series must be taken with a grain of salt.  Not only are the Knicks a terrible defensive team to begin with, the way Toney Douglas chose to guard Rondo throughout the series was inexcusable.  Playing off of Rondo in the half-court is the smart thing to do and you cannot fault the Knicks for such (Rondo's 5/13 field goal performance can attest to that).  Where the major issue lied was in the fast-break defense.  It seems as if Douglas' strategy was simply to keep backpedaling until he left the court.  It's not like Rajon was going all Allen Iverson on people and breaking ankles; he went straight down the middle of the lane completely uncontested.  As much as the Knicks defense can be blamed, Rondo must be praised for becoming only the second player in history to record a playoff triple-double with 20+ assists (interestingly Magic Johnson's 1991 performance was almost identical (16 pts, 11 rbs, 20 ast, 4/12 fgs, 6/6 fts).  Setting records like this must be appreciated and Rondo is getting his appreciation here.

2. Chris Paul, Game 1 (33 pts, 7 rbs, 14 ast, 11/18 fgs, 2/3 3pts, 9/12 fts)
I contest that there has never been a deeper position in any sport at any time as there currently is at the point guard spot in the NBA.  There are upwards of ten point guards that could easily lead a championship team and the gap between 1 and 5 is not nearly as big as it is for every other position.  That being said, for anybody that was beginning to reopen the debate as to who may be the best of the best, Chris Paul just spent the first round telling those people to shut up.  The Hornets had no business making the playoffs in the West (without David West) and absolutely no business taking 2 games from the Lakers and yet they did both.  Two words explain why.  Chris. Paul.


1. Chris Paul, Game 4 (27 pts, 13 rbs, 15 ast, 7/14 fgs, 2/4 3pts, 11/11 fts)
Chris Paul is unequivocally, the best and most well-rounded point guard in the NBA and there is an argument to be had that he is the most well-rounded player in the game as well.  When healthy, he is the best on-ball defensive point guard in the league, the third best passer in the league (Nash and James), the third-best playmaking point guard (Rondo and Nash), the fourth-best penetrating point guard (Rose, Parker, Williams), one of the top ten overall shooters in the league, and, for his size, an above-average rebounder.  If I were a basketball coach teaching point guards how to play the game effectively, I would make them watch Game 4 of the Hornets-Lakers series.  He dominated the game individually, he set his teammates up perfectly, and most importantly he willed his team to win a game that they should not have won.

NBA Playoff Predictions

Ok, here are my playoff predictions.  Have at them.

First Round:
Expect Chicago, Miami, and Los Angeles to sweep.  Portland is the only upset I see happening (4 games to 2) but I expect New York to take Boston to at least six games and an upset would not shock me.  With Manu Ginobili's injury I see San Antonio as vulnerable and Memphis should give them a tough series.  Denver could take two games from Oklahoma City, same thing with Atlanta versus Orlando.

Second Round:
Chicago should see a tough challenge out of Orlando.  Noah is a solid player but Dwight Howard is out of his mind lately.  Derrick Rose will have just received the MVP award days earlier and a bitter Howard  should be expected to pull a '95 Hakeem and show the world who is really best.  Chicago will take the physical series in seven games behind its superior supporting cast.
The Celtics and the Heat will go six games.  I see Boston taking Game 2 in Miami and closing the series out at home.  Wade has struggled against the C's all season and Garnett owns Bosh.  A healthy Boston will pull it out but an injury to one of the O'Neal's could spell danger.
Oklahoma City should sweep San Antonio.  The injury bug has plagued the Spurs' big three in the second half of the season and they seem vulnerable.  The Thunder, with the addition of Perkins, are too tough on both sides of the ball and should coast.  If healthy, the Spurs could take a game but it is unlikely.
Assuming Bynum is healthy, which he says he should be, the Lakers should get by the Blazers.  Portland is a sneaky team and if Brandon Roy steps his game up they could give Los Angeles a run for their money.  With Bynum I see Portland taking a game maybe two.  If Bynum is out then I see it going seven games and possibly a Portland upset.

Conference Finals:
Chicago-Boston should be a great series.  The two teams put in a classic performance two years ago on route to a Boston win in seven games.  Chicago's young core has never won a playoff series and Boston's core has only lost one (last year's NBA finals).  I see this series as a concrete changing of the guard.  Rose versus Rondo will be the primary matchup but I expect Ray Allen to be the key for Boston.  Deng and Pierce, as well as Garnett and Boozer, match-up nicely against each other so the burden will fall on Bogans and Korver to keep Allen in check.  Expect Boston to push the Bulls to six or seven games before succumbing.
In last year's playoffs the Thunder sent the Lakers, and the rest of the league for that matter, a message, "We're coming."  Save for an inability to box Pau Gasol out at the buzzer in Game 6, OKC would have taken the eventual champs to seven games in a great match-up.  Oklahoma City has not only improved through experience, they have also added the biggest difference maker in the series, Kendrick Perkins.  The Perkins trade was great for Oklahoma City as a whole but it was a move made to counter Los Angeles.  The Lakers size hurt the Thunder last season and Perkins was continually the key for Boston in its match-ups with LA.  Artest plays Durant well and the Lakers will throw Brown, Barnes, and Bryant at Westbrook.  This series should go seven and an upset would not surprise me but expect Kobe's willpower and Odom's length and versatility to be the difference.

NBA Finals:
The Lakers have face the Bulls one time in playoff history, it did not go their way.  In 1991, Chicago beat LA four games to one behind the force that was Michael Jordan.  You can expect Chicago's new force Derrick Rose to make this into a difficult series.  Chicago will have home-court advantage and expect them to take Games 1 and 2 at home before being swept out in six.  Los Angeles's length should be the difference.  Give Kobe Bryant his 6th ring and his 3rd consecutive Bill Russell award.

Efficient Shooting Percentage

Basketball is arguably the most difficult sport of the Big 3 to develop complete statistics.  Baseball works on a play-by-play basis meaning that the only aspect of the game that is difficult to capture is defensive ability.  Football revolves around ball movement on a play-by-play basis so the only gap involves the off-ball interactions.  Unlike its peers, basketball involves fluid gameplay.  Inherently, a lack of separation between actions increases the difficulty of effectively capturing the quality of play with statistics.

In sports, nearly all statistics receive criticism.  More than any other sport, basketball statistics incite the most debate.  This is probably due to a number of factors: there are a high number of separate aspects of gameplay, different aspects can be difficult to differentiate at times, not all aspects of the game can be measured, how should different aspects be weighted against one another, and many more.  While large-scale statistics receive the most argumentation, shooting statistics are often the most misused.  The validity of standard shooting percentages is non-debatable, but the effectiveness of measuring players by them certainly is.  With increasingly developed shooting statistics comes decreased consensus over effectiveness.

While many different statistics exist, all seeming to take different approaches at assessing offensive efficiency, none attempt to assess offensive intelligence.  I decided to attempt to fill this gap.  It is nearly impossible to measure true offensive intelligence—can't measure whether a player "makes the right play or not"—but it is certainly possible to measure whether a player sets himself up to be successful.  A player who effectively sets himself up to succeed would be expect to shoot the most from the places where he shoots the best.  Using this logic, to measure offensive efficiency I used shooting percentages and percentage of shots taken from certain distances to calculate a total efficiency value.

First, I used hoopdata.com to break down a player's overall field goal percentage into selected shooting percentages, at the rim, in the paint (<10 feet), mid-range (10-15 feet), long 2-pointers (16-23 feet), and 3-point field goals (I used effective 3-point field goal percentage to add weight for difficulty).  I then calculated the percentage of total shots taken in each of the regions.  These two break downs told me how good a player was from a certain area and how often they shot from that area.  Next, I multiplied the two percentages to obtain a "efficiency value" for each area of the court.  I knew that it was efficient for a good free-throw shooter to get to the free-throw line more often so I then multiplied free throw percentage by total FT/FG to obtain an "efficiency value" for getting to the line.  Finally, I added the respective "values" to create an "Efficient Shooting Percentage."

As a sample set, I calculated the Efficient Shooting Percentage (ES%) for 40 of the NBA's top players using percentages at the time of the All-Star break.  Here is what I found (sorted by ES%):

While the results exhibit few major surprises, there are also a few enlightenments (See Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose).

What do you think?