NFL Draft Results

1. Carolina Panthers—Cam Newton, QB Auburn
2. Denver Broncos—Von Miller, LB Texas A&M
3. Buffalo Bills—Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
4. Cincinnati Bengals—A.J. Green, WR Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals—Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
6. Atlanta Falcons (from Cleveland Browns)—Julio Jones, WR Alabama
7. San Francisco 49ers—Aldon Smith, DE Missouri8. Tennessee Titans—Jake Locker, QB Washington9. Dallas Cowboys—Tyron Smith, OT USC
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington Redskins)—Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri11. Houston Texans—J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin12. Minnesota Vikings—Christian Ponder, QB FSU
13. Detroit Lions—Nick Fairley, DT Auburn14. St. Louis Rams—Robert Quinn, DE UNC15. Miami Dolphins—Mike Pouncey, G Florida
16. Washington Redskins (from Jacksonville Jaguars)—Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
17. New England Patriots—Nate Solder, OT Colorado
18. San Diego Chargers—Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
19. New York Giants—Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa21. Cleveland Browns (from Kansas City Chiefs)—Phil Taylor, DT Baylor22. Indianapolis Colts—Anthony Castanzo, OT Boston College
23. Philadelphia Eagles—Danny Watkins, G Baylor
24. New Orleans Saints—Cameron Jordan, DE California
25. Seattle Seahawks—James Carpenter, OT Alabama

26. Kansas City Chiefs (from Cleveland Browns, via Atlanta Falcons)—Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh

27. Baltimore Ravens—Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
28. New Orleans Saints (from New England Patriots)—Mark Ingram, RB Alabama

29. Chicago Bears—Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
30. New York Jets—Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple
31. Pittsburgh Steelers—Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St
32. Green Bay Packers—Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St


8/32 = 25% = Weak... sorry.

2011 NFL Mock Draft

1. Carolina Panthers—JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU Cam Newton, QB Auburn
2. Denver Broncos—Von Miller, LB Texas A&M
3. Buffalo Bills—Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
4. Cincinnati Bengals—A.J. Green, WR Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals—Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
6. Cleveland Browns—Julio Jones, WR Alabama
7. San Francisco 49ers—Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
8. Tennessee Titans—Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
9. Dallas Cowboys—Tyron Smith, OT USC
10. Washington Redskins—Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
11. Houston Texans—Robert Quinn, DE UNC
12. Minnesota Vikings—Jake Locker, QB Washington
13. Detroit Lions—Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
14. St. Louis Rams—Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
15. Miami Dolphins—Mike Pouncey, G Florida
16. Jacksonville Jaguars—DaQuan Bowers, DE Clemson
17. New England Patriots—J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
18. San Diego Chargers—Cameron Jordan, DE California
19. New York Giants—Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
21. Kansas City Chiefs—Nate Solder, OT Colorado
22. Indianapolis Colts—Andy Dalton, QB TCU
23. Philadelphia Eagles—Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
24. New Orleans Saints—Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple
25. Seattle Seahawks—Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
26. Baltimore Ravens—Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
27. Atlanta Falcons—Brooks Reed, DE Arizona
28. New England Patriots—Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
29. Chicago Bears—Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
30. New York Jets—Marvin Austin, DT UNC
31. Pittsburgh Steelers—Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St
32. Green Bay Packers—Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St

Is LeBron James an overrated defender?

This isn't a post aimed to simply criticize LeBron James.  LeBron is the best talent in the NBA.  It is not a debate over whether LeBron has the ability to be a great defender, it is about whether he is a great defender.  James is a two time reigning All-NBA First-Team Defensive player.  These awards are often more about reputation than actual analysis but this is a different debate.  While the First-Team is general composed of the five best defenders out of the big-name players, there are rarely players on the team that don't even deserve the consideration.  LeBron James is the exception.

LeBron has benefitted individually in the same ways that his team has benefitted collectively: by showing out against the scrubs and capitalizing on this "SportsCenter Era."  Given that reputation is based on what is heard and what is seen, ESPN has the ability to greatly influence perception.  By emphasizing LeBron James' chase down blocks and passing lane jumps, people see defensive dominance and begin to believe it.  The problem is that defensive ability is not all about chase down blocks and cheating off your man.  Defense is a function of athleticism, skill, and effort.  LeBron brings the athleticism and every now and then the effort, but, as an on-ball defender, the skill just is not there.

The biggest knock on the Heat this season has been that they dominate the non-playoff teams and have a .500 record against the elites; LeBron James' defense is the same way.  Understanding that every game must be considered (good opponents and bad), when determining who is best, one must emphasize how each player or team competes against the best opponents.  Struggling against the elites but killing the scrubs still gets Miami the #2 seed in the East but the dichotomy influences the team's projected playoff success (how they are valued against the best).  In LeBron's case, one must consider how he defends both backups and all-stars, but in determining who the league's top wing defenders are, one must give more value to those who guard the league's elite players the best.

James relies on his athleticism in most aspects of the game.  His physical prowess allows him to succeed against inferior players but when he faces the upper-class players, very few struggle.  In considering how the three best wings in the NBA (besides James) fare against LeBron—Anthony, Durant, and Pierce—the athletic Anthony, and Durant excel while the crafty Pierce struggles.  When guarded by James (versus a bench player), both Anthony and Durant see their scoring numbers increase.  Interestingly, when competing against James versus his season average, Carmelo Anthony's plus/minus increases from 2.4 to a whopping 11.0.  In is undeniable that LeBron shuts Paul Pierce down (Pierce statistics all fall by over 10% when LeBron is on the court).  Given that Pierce is well past his prime, he has lost much of his athleticism and now relies mostly on craftiness.  The matchup is perfect for James because he can use his biggest strength (his athleticism) to exploit Pierce's biggest weakness.

By no means is this meant as an argument that LeBron James is not a good defender.  Defense encompasses on-ball, off-ball, and open-court aspects.  Superior physical abilities allow LeBron to be one of the premier open-court defenders.  Additionally, his great court-vision makes James' off-ball defensive abilities some of the best in the NBA.  James' inconsistencies lie in his on-ball defense.  He has been and will continue to be an above average on-ball defender because his athleticism allows him to stifle sub-par and par players as-well as the mediocre athletes such as Pierce and Hedo Turkoglu.  When debating who the best at anything is, one must consider how the best compete against the best, and against the athletic, well-rounded wing players James does not only fail to excel, he is below average.

NBA Playoff Predictions

Ok, here are my playoff predictions.  Have at them.

First Round:
Expect Chicago, Miami, and Los Angeles to sweep.  Portland is the only upset I see happening (4 games to 2) but I expect New York to take Boston to at least six games and an upset would not shock me.  With Manu Ginobili's injury I see San Antonio as vulnerable and Memphis should give them a tough series.  Denver could take two games from Oklahoma City, same thing with Atlanta versus Orlando.

Second Round:
Chicago should see a tough challenge out of Orlando.  Noah is a solid player but Dwight Howard is out of his mind lately.  Derrick Rose will have just received the MVP award days earlier and a bitter Howard  should be expected to pull a '95 Hakeem and show the world who is really best.  Chicago will take the physical series in seven games behind its superior supporting cast.
The Celtics and the Heat will go six games.  I see Boston taking Game 2 in Miami and closing the series out at home.  Wade has struggled against the C's all season and Garnett owns Bosh.  A healthy Boston will pull it out but an injury to one of the O'Neal's could spell danger.
Oklahoma City should sweep San Antonio.  The injury bug has plagued the Spurs' big three in the second half of the season and they seem vulnerable.  The Thunder, with the addition of Perkins, are too tough on both sides of the ball and should coast.  If healthy, the Spurs could take a game but it is unlikely.
Assuming Bynum is healthy, which he says he should be, the Lakers should get by the Blazers.  Portland is a sneaky team and if Brandon Roy steps his game up they could give Los Angeles a run for their money.  With Bynum I see Portland taking a game maybe two.  If Bynum is out then I see it going seven games and possibly a Portland upset.

Conference Finals:
Chicago-Boston should be a great series.  The two teams put in a classic performance two years ago on route to a Boston win in seven games.  Chicago's young core has never won a playoff series and Boston's core has only lost one (last year's NBA finals).  I see this series as a concrete changing of the guard.  Rose versus Rondo will be the primary matchup but I expect Ray Allen to be the key for Boston.  Deng and Pierce, as well as Garnett and Boozer, match-up nicely against each other so the burden will fall on Bogans and Korver to keep Allen in check.  Expect Boston to push the Bulls to six or seven games before succumbing.
In last year's playoffs the Thunder sent the Lakers, and the rest of the league for that matter, a message, "We're coming."  Save for an inability to box Pau Gasol out at the buzzer in Game 6, OKC would have taken the eventual champs to seven games in a great match-up.  Oklahoma City has not only improved through experience, they have also added the biggest difference maker in the series, Kendrick Perkins.  The Perkins trade was great for Oklahoma City as a whole but it was a move made to counter Los Angeles.  The Lakers size hurt the Thunder last season and Perkins was continually the key for Boston in its match-ups with LA.  Artest plays Durant well and the Lakers will throw Brown, Barnes, and Bryant at Westbrook.  This series should go seven and an upset would not surprise me but expect Kobe's willpower and Odom's length and versatility to be the difference.

NBA Finals:
The Lakers have face the Bulls one time in playoff history, it did not go their way.  In 1991, Chicago beat LA four games to one behind the force that was Michael Jordan.  You can expect Chicago's new force Derrick Rose to make this into a difficult series.  Chicago will have home-court advantage and expect them to take Games 1 and 2 at home before being swept out in six.  Los Angeles's length should be the difference.  Give Kobe Bryant his 6th ring and his 3rd consecutive Bill Russell award.

Efficient Shooting Percentage

Basketball is arguably the most difficult sport of the Big 3 to develop complete statistics.  Baseball works on a play-by-play basis meaning that the only aspect of the game that is difficult to capture is defensive ability.  Football revolves around ball movement on a play-by-play basis so the only gap involves the off-ball interactions.  Unlike its peers, basketball involves fluid gameplay.  Inherently, a lack of separation between actions increases the difficulty of effectively capturing the quality of play with statistics.

In sports, nearly all statistics receive criticism.  More than any other sport, basketball statistics incite the most debate.  This is probably due to a number of factors: there are a high number of separate aspects of gameplay, different aspects can be difficult to differentiate at times, not all aspects of the game can be measured, how should different aspects be weighted against one another, and many more.  While large-scale statistics receive the most argumentation, shooting statistics are often the most misused.  The validity of standard shooting percentages is non-debatable, but the effectiveness of measuring players by them certainly is.  With increasingly developed shooting statistics comes decreased consensus over effectiveness.

While many different statistics exist, all seeming to take different approaches at assessing offensive efficiency, none attempt to assess offensive intelligence.  I decided to attempt to fill this gap.  It is nearly impossible to measure true offensive intelligence—can't measure whether a player "makes the right play or not"—but it is certainly possible to measure whether a player sets himself up to be successful.  A player who effectively sets himself up to succeed would be expect to shoot the most from the places where he shoots the best.  Using this logic, to measure offensive efficiency I used shooting percentages and percentage of shots taken from certain distances to calculate a total efficiency value.

First, I used hoopdata.com to break down a player's overall field goal percentage into selected shooting percentages, at the rim, in the paint (<10 feet), mid-range (10-15 feet), long 2-pointers (16-23 feet), and 3-point field goals (I used effective 3-point field goal percentage to add weight for difficulty).  I then calculated the percentage of total shots taken in each of the regions.  These two break downs told me how good a player was from a certain area and how often they shot from that area.  Next, I multiplied the two percentages to obtain a "efficiency value" for each area of the court.  I knew that it was efficient for a good free-throw shooter to get to the free-throw line more often so I then multiplied free throw percentage by total FT/FG to obtain an "efficiency value" for getting to the line.  Finally, I added the respective "values" to create an "Efficient Shooting Percentage."

As a sample set, I calculated the Efficient Shooting Percentage (ES%) for 40 of the NBA's top players using percentages at the time of the All-Star break.  Here is what I found (sorted by ES%):

While the results exhibit few major surprises, there are also a few enlightenments (See Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose).

What do you think?

MLB Predictions

Forgot to post this last week.  Preseason predictions: