2011 NBA Mock Draft [Final]

1. Cleveland Cavaliers—Kyrie Irving, PG Duke
2. Minnesota Timberwolves—Derrick Williams, F Arizona
3. Utah Jazz—Enes Kanter, C Turkey
4. Cleveland Cavaliers—Jonas Valanciunas, F/C Lithuania
5. Toronto Raptors—Bismack Biyombo—F/C Congo
6. Washington Wizards—Jan Vessely, F Czech Republic
7. Charlotte Bobcats—Tristan Thompson, PF Texas
8. Detroit Pistons—Kawhi Leonard, F San Diego State
9. Charlotte Bobcats—Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky
10. Sacramento Kings—Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU
11. Golden State Warriors—Klay Thompson, SG Washington State
12. Utah Jazz—Alec Burks, SG Colorado
13. Phoenix Suns—Marcus Morris, F Kansas
14. Houston Rockets—Nikola Vucevic, C USC
15. Indiana Pacers—Chris Singleton, SF Florida State
16. Philadelphia 76ers—Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas
17. New York Knicks—Kemba Walker, PG UConn
18. Washington Wizards—Tobias Harris, PF Tennessee
19. Milwaukee Bucks—Markieff Morris, PF Charlotte Bobcats
20. Minnesota Timberwolves—Marshon Brooks, SG Providence
21. Portland Trailblazers—Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State
22. Denver Nuggets—Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania
23. Houston Rockets—Iman Shumpert, PG Georgia Tech
24. Oklahoma City Thunder—Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia
25. Boston Celtics—Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA
26. Dallas Mavericks—Jeremy Tyler, PF
27. New Jersey Nets—Chandler Parsons, SF Florida
28. Chicago Bulls—Justin Harper, PF Richmond
29. San Antonio Spurs—Davis Bertans, SF Latvia
30. Chicago Bulls—Nolan Smith, SG Duke

Makings of a Champion

Hindsight is 20-20.  That is essentially the nature of this post.  Often times, the bad teams in a sport are the teams that have poor draft records.  Essentially, the first-round* of the last five NBA drafts (2006-2010) will be revisited to make the each team in the league into a championship contender**.
* 2nd round if team had no first round picks
**Closest as possible in some cases [Read: Cleveland SUCKS]

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks
2006: Shelden Williams Rudy Gay
2011 Lineup: Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, Al Horford
Boston Celtics
2008: JR Giddens DeAndre Jordan
2010: Avery Bradley Landry Fields
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, DeAndre Jordan
Charlotte Bobcats
2006: Adam Morrison Brandon Roy
2007: Jared Dudley Wilson Chandler
2008: DJ Augustin Brook Lopez
2009: Gerald Henderson Ty Lawson
2011 Lineup: Ty Lawson, Brandon Roy, Stephen Jackson, Wilson Chandler, Brook Lopez
Chicago Bulls
2006: Tyrus Thomas Rudy Gay
2009: James Johnson Omri Casspi
2011 Lineup: Derrick Rose, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah
Cleveland Cavaliers
2006: Shannon Brown Paul Millsap
2009: Christian Eyenga Marcus Thornton
2011 Lineup: Baron Davis, Marcus Thornton, Antawn Jamison, Paul Millsap, JJ Hickson
Detroit Pistons
2007: Rodney Stuckey Wilson Chandler
2008: Walter Sharpe DeAndre Jordan
2009: Austin Daye Jrue Holiday
2011 Lineup: Jrue Holiday, Wilson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Greg Monroe, DeAndre Jordan
Indiana Pacers
2006: Shawne Williams Rajon Rondo
2008: Brandon Rush Nicolas Batum
2009: Tyler Hansbrough Taj Gibson
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Nicolas Batum, Taj Gibson, Roy Hibbert
Miami Heat
2007: Daequan Cook Marc Gasol
2008: Michael Beasley Russell Westbrook
2011 Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Marc Gasol [Read: 82-0]
Milwaukee Bucks
2006: David Noel Paul Millsap
2007: Yi Jianlian Wilson Chandler
2008: Joe Alexander Nicolas Batum
2009: Brandon Jennings Ty Lawson
2011 Lineup: Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Nicolas Batum, Paul Millsap, Andrew Bogut
New Jersey Nets
2006: Marcus Williams Kyle Lowry
2006: Josh Boone Paul Millsap
2007: Sean Williams Wilson Chandler
2009: Terrence Williams Chase Budinger
2011 Lineup: Deron Williams, Anthony Morrow, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez
New York Knicks
2006 Renaldo Balkman Rajon Rondo
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Landry Fields, Carmelo Anthony, Amaré Stoudemire, Ronny Turiaf
Orlando Magic
2006: JJ Redick Rajon Rondo
2007: Reyshawn Terry Marc Gasol
2010: Daniel Orton Landry Fields
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Landry Fields, Jason Richardson, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard
Philadelphia 76ers
2006: Rodney Carney Rajon Rondo
2008: Mareese Speights Roy Hibbert
2009: Jrue Holiday Ty Lawson
2010: Evan Turner DeMarcus Cousins
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, DeMarcus Cousins, Roy Hibbert
Toronto Raptors
2006: Andrea Bargnani LaMarcus Aldridge
2001 Lineup: Jose Calderon, Leandro Barbosa, DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge
Washington Wizards
2006: Oleksiy Pecherov Paul Millsap
2007: Nick Young Wilson Chandler
2008: Javale McGee JJ Hickson
2011 Lineup: John Wall, Wilson Chandler, Rashard Lewis, Paul Millsap, JJ Hickson

Western Conference


Dallas Mavericks
2006: Maurice Ager Paul Millsap
2007: Nick Fazekas Marc Gasol
2011 Lineup: Jason Kidd, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler
Denver Nuggets
2009: Sergio Llull DeJuan Blair
2011 Lineup: Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Néne
Golden State Warriors
2006: Patrick O'Bryant Rajon Rondo
2007: Branden Wright Joakim Noah
2007: Marco Belinelli Wilson Chandler
2010: Ekpe Udoh Greg Monroe
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Monta Ellis, Wilson Chandler, David Lee, Joakim Noah
Houston Rockets
2011 Lineup: Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger, Luis Scola, Yao Ming
Los Angeles Clippers
2007: Al Thornton Wilson Chandler
2011 Lineup: Mo Williams, Eric Gordon, Wilson Chandler, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan
Los Angeles Lakers
2011 Lineup: Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum
Memphis Grizzlies
2008: OJ Mayo Russell Westbrook
2009: Hasheem Thabeet Stephen Curry
2011 Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol
Minnesota Timberwolves
2006: Randy Foye Rudy Gay
2007: Corey Brewer Joakim Noah
2009: Ricky Rubio Stephen Curry
2009: Jonny Flynn Ty Lawson
2010: Wesley Johnson DeMarcus Cousins
2011 Lineup: Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Rudy Gay, Kevin Love, Joakim Noah
New Orleans Hornets
2006: Hilton Armstrong Rajon Rondo
2006: Cedric Simmons Paul Millsap
2007: Julian Wright Wilson Chandler
2010: Quincy Pondexter Jordan Crawford
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul, Wilson Chandler, David West, Emeka Okafor
Oklahoma City Thunder
2006: Mouhamed Sene Rajon Rondo
2008: Russell Westbrook Kevin Love
2009: James Harden Stephen Curry
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Serge Ibaka
Phoenix Suns
2007: Alando Tucker Marc Gasol
2008: Robin Lopez George Hill
2009: Earl Clark Taj Gibson
2011 Lineup: Steve Nash, George Hill, Vince Carter, Taj Gibson, Marc Gasol
Portland Trailblazers
2007: Greg Oden Kevin Durant
2008: Jerryd Bayless George Hill
2009: Victor Claver Rodrigue Beaubois
2011 Lineup: George Hill, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby
Sacramento Kings
2006: Quincy Douby Rajon Rondo
2008: Jason Thompson Roy Hibbert
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, DeMarcus Cousins, Roy Hibbert
San Antonio Spurs
2007: Tiago Splitter Marc Gasol
2011 Lineup: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol
Utah Jazz
2006: Ronnie Brewer Rajon Rondo
2007 Morris Almond Carl Landry
2011 Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Devin Harris, Carl Landry, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson

2011 NBA Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Cavaliers—Kyrie Irving, PG Duke
2. Minnesota Timberwolves—Derrick Williams, F Arizona
3. Utah Jazz—Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky
4. Cleveland Cavaliers—Enes Kanter, C Turkey
5. Toronto Raptors—Jan Vessely, F Czech Republic
6. Washington Wizards—Kawhi Leonard, F San Diego State
7. Sacramento Kings—Kemba Walker, PG UConn
8. Detroit Pistons—Bismack Biyombo—F/C Congo
9. Charlotte Bobcats—Marcus Morris, F Kansas
10. Milwaukee Bucks—Alec Burks, SG Colorado
11. Golden State Warriors—Klay Thompson, SG Washington State
12. Utah Jazz—Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas
13. Phoenix Suns—Tristan Thompson, PF Texas
14. Houston Rockets—Jonas Valanciunas, F/C Lithuania
15. Indiana Pacers—Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU
16. Philadelphia 76ers—Chris Singleton, SF Florida State
17. New York Knicks—Nikola Vucevic, C USC
18. Washington Wizards—Tobias Harris, PF Tennessee
19. Charlotte Bobcats—Markieff Morris, PF Charlotte Bobcats
20. Minnesota Timberwolves—Marshon Brooks, SG Providence
21. Portland Trailblazers—Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State
22. Denver Nuggets—Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania
23. Houston Rockets—Iman Shumpert, PG Georgia Tech
24. Oklahoma City Thunder—Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia
25. Boston Celtics—Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA
26. Dallas Mavericks—Jeremy Tyler, PF
27. New Jersey Nets—Chandler Parsons, SF Florida
28. Chicago Bulls—Justin Harper, PF Richmond
29. San Antonio Spurs—Davis Bertans, SF Latvia
20. Chicago Bulls—Nolan Smith, SG Duke

NBA Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Derrick Rose
Most "valuable" player differs greatly from most "outstanding" player.  Interestingly, it may add to Derrick Rose's MVP case that he would not be the MOP.  When you acknowledge that James had by far the best season, then you begin to dissect what Rose brought to the table to make Chicago the best team in the NBA.  The debate, for me, came down to Rose versus Howard.  The arguments were that without Howard, Orlando would arguably be the worst defensive team in the NBA, yet with him they were one of the best, and for Chicago, nobody would shoot on that team if not for Rose.  Coupling Rose's improved defense with his dynamic offense and Howard's improved offense with his dominant defense, it is difficult to differentiate which player has a greater impact on his team.  Essentially, Howard loses the award more than Rose wins it as Dwight is often too complacent and the does more to hurt his team than Derrick does (technical fouls>suspension).

2. Dwight Howard

3. Dirk Nowitzki

4. Dwyane Wade

5. LeBron James

Rookie of the Year:
Blake Griffin

Do I need to explain anything?

2. DeMarcus Cousins

3. Landry Fields

Defensive Player of the Year:
Dwight Howard
(See above)

2. Tyson Chandler

3. Tony Allen

Coach of the Year:
George Karl
The most impressive part of George Karl's coaching performance this season was that he essentially coached two completely different teams, in two completely different situations, in two completely different systems, and equally as impressive.  Prior to the Carmelo trade, Karl kept a team that 9 out of 10 times would have mailed it in competitive.  Following the trade, Denver became a top defensive team, developed great offensive balance, and played with more energy than anyone else.  More than anything else, it has to say something about the coach when a team trades its two best players for 75 cents on the dollar and becomes more feared.

2. Doug Collins

3. Lionel Hollins

Most Improved Player:
LaMarcus Aldridge
For the first few years of his career, there were numerous criticisms of LaMarcus Aldridge's game: he was an outside big, he wasn't a great defender, and he wasn't a leader.  Following Brandon Roy's surgery most people wrote Portland off, and rightfully so.  The only reason that the Blazers did not fall off the map was because of Aldridge's improvements.  He became a dominant post player, he improved his defense, he became a fantastic leader.  Aldridge put Portland on his back and carried them to places people thought they could not go.

2. Derrick Rose

3. Tyler Hansbrough

Sixth Man of the Year:
Lamar Odom
Odom separates himself from Terry and Crawford mostly because of his versatility and his value to his team.  Lamar brings an aspect to the Lakers that they do not get anywhere else and is essential to the team's success.  Terry and Crawford both pack scoring punch off of the bench but neither contributes much else.
2. Jason Terry
3. Jamal Crawford
All-NBA:
First Team:
Derrick Rose
Dwyane Wade
LeBron James
Dirk Nowitzki
Dwight Howard
Second Team:
Russell Westbrook
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
LaMarcus Aldridge
Amaré Stoudemire
Third Team:
Chris Paul
Manu Ginobili
Kevin Love
Zach Randolph
Pau Gasol
All-NBA Defense:
First-Team:
Rajon Rondo
Tony Allen
Andre Iguodala
Kevin Garnett
Dwight Howard
Second-Team:
Chris Paul
Derrick Rose
Grant Hill
LeBron James
Tyson Chandler
All-NBA Rookie:
First-Team:
John Wall
Landry Fields
Greg Monroe
Blake Griffin
DeMarcus Cousins
Second-Team:
Eric Bledsoe
Wes Johnson
Paul George
Gary Neal
Derrick Favors

Top 5 Individuals Performance of the First Round

Honorable Mentions:
-Derrick Rose, Game 1 (39 pts, 6 rbs, 6 ast, 10/23 fgs, 0/9 3pts, 19/21 fts)
-Dwyane Wade, Game 3 (32 pts, 10 rbs, 8 ast, 10/19 fgs, 12/12 fts)
-Dirk Nowitzki, Game 6 (33 pts, 11 rbs, 11/17 fgs, 0/1 3pts, 11/11 fts)
-Kevin Durant, Game 1 (41 pts, 9 rbs, 13/22 fgs, 3/6 3pts, 12/15 fts)
-Zach Randolph, Game 1 (25 pts, 14 rbs, 10/15 fgs, 0/1 3pts, 5/8 fts)


5. Dwight Howard, Game 1 (46 pts, 19 rbs, 8 tos, 16/23 fgs, 14/22 fts)
If Orlando had won the game, it would be nearly impossible to keep Howard's Game 1 performance out of the top 3.  Dwight's 46 points and 19 rebounds both remain as the  top outputs so far this postseason.  While statistically the showing was outstanding, the Magic were rarely competing and never in control of the game.  It does mean something to carry the team and all Dwight was able to do was keep them afloat.


4. Carmelo Anthony, Game 2 (42 pts, 17 rbs, 6 ast, 14/30 fgs, 4/8 3pts, 10/11 fts)
While it is difficult to separate Carmelo Anthony's Game 2 performance and Dwight Howard's Game 1 on a statistical basis, a few intangible factors go into ranking Melo over Dwight.  First, while Howard dominated his game, he never took over like Carmelo did.  Anthony put up big numbers all game long but in the 4th quarter of a tight game on the road (without Amaré and Chauncey), he pushed his teammates' struggles to the curb and carried the Knicks to what should have been a meaningful victory (anyone who knows basketball saw that the refs stole that game from New York).  Second, Howard's team was the favorite at home and Carmelo's was the underdog on the road.  Carmelo putting up big numbers against Paul Pierce and the C's is more impressive than Dwight Howard against Jason Collins, Zaza Pachulia, and Hilton Armstrong.

3. Rajon Rondo, Game 3 (15 pts, 11 rbs, 20 ast, 5/13 fgs, 5/6 fts)

Rajon Rondo's first round series must be taken with a grain of salt.  Not only are the Knicks a terrible defensive team to begin with, the way Toney Douglas chose to guard Rondo throughout the series was inexcusable.  Playing off of Rondo in the half-court is the smart thing to do and you cannot fault the Knicks for such (Rondo's 5/13 field goal performance can attest to that).  Where the major issue lied was in the fast-break defense.  It seems as if Douglas' strategy was simply to keep backpedaling until he left the court.  It's not like Rajon was going all Allen Iverson on people and breaking ankles; he went straight down the middle of the lane completely uncontested.  As much as the Knicks defense can be blamed, Rondo must be praised for becoming only the second player in history to record a playoff triple-double with 20+ assists (interestingly Magic Johnson's 1991 performance was almost identical (16 pts, 11 rbs, 20 ast, 4/12 fgs, 6/6 fts).  Setting records like this must be appreciated and Rondo is getting his appreciation here.

2. Chris Paul, Game 1 (33 pts, 7 rbs, 14 ast, 11/18 fgs, 2/3 3pts, 9/12 fts)
I contest that there has never been a deeper position in any sport at any time as there currently is at the point guard spot in the NBA.  There are upwards of ten point guards that could easily lead a championship team and the gap between 1 and 5 is not nearly as big as it is for every other position.  That being said, for anybody that was beginning to reopen the debate as to who may be the best of the best, Chris Paul just spent the first round telling those people to shut up.  The Hornets had no business making the playoffs in the West (without David West) and absolutely no business taking 2 games from the Lakers and yet they did both.  Two words explain why.  Chris. Paul.


1. Chris Paul, Game 4 (27 pts, 13 rbs, 15 ast, 7/14 fgs, 2/4 3pts, 11/11 fts)
Chris Paul is unequivocally, the best and most well-rounded point guard in the NBA and there is an argument to be had that he is the most well-rounded player in the game as well.  When healthy, he is the best on-ball defensive point guard in the league, the third best passer in the league (Nash and James), the third-best playmaking point guard (Rondo and Nash), the fourth-best penetrating point guard (Rose, Parker, Williams), one of the top ten overall shooters in the league, and, for his size, an above-average rebounder.  If I were a basketball coach teaching point guards how to play the game effectively, I would make them watch Game 4 of the Hornets-Lakers series.  He dominated the game individually, he set his teammates up perfectly, and most importantly he willed his team to win a game that they should not have won.

April Awards

American League MVP: Robinson Cano

Hitting .320 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs for the 16-9 Yankees, Robinson Cano should be the front runner for American League MVP.  The National League seems to dominate the early season statistics on an annual basis and 2011 is no different.  There are no AL standouts to this point but Cano is currently the only player in the top 10 in all average, home runs, and rbis (T8, T2, T4).  The superior statistics, coupled with the second-best record in the AL puts Cano is prime position going forward.

Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Michael Young, Alex Gordon

American League Cy Young: Jered Weaver

No.  Brainer.  Say hello to this year's Ubaldo Jimenez.  Weaver has been absolutely dominant to start the season.  Currently on pace for the Triple Crown and leading his Angels to division-leading status, this one needs no debate.

Candidates: Dan Haren, Michael Pineda, Trevor Cahill, Justin Masterson, James Shields

American League Manager of the Month: Manny Acta

The Cleveland Indians are a MLB-leading 19-8.  Other than Acta, try to give me another good reason why.

Candidates: Terry Francona (just kidding)

National League MVP: Lance Berkman

If you watched Berkman on the 2010 Astros or Yankees, you would think that him winning the MVP this year would be insane.  The bottom-line is that The Big Puma has flat-out raked all year long.  St. Louis lost Adam Wainwright in Spring Training and Albert Pujols has not looked like Albert Pujols to this point and yet the Cardinals still lead the NL Central.  Why, you ask?  Look no further than Berkman's monstrous 1.209 OPS.  While this production most likely will not last all season, any true baseball fan has to love seeing Lance put up numbers like it's 2006 again.

Candidates: Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp

National League Cy Young: Josh Johnson

Is there a more under-appreciated player in all of baseball than Josh Johnson?  If there is, please let me know.  Through 7 big-league seasons, the 27 year-old has posted a career ERA under 3.00 while winning nearly 70% of his games for a perennially poor Florida team.  This year has been no exception.  While his 3-0 record with 49 strikeouts in 6 starts is impressive on its own, sporting a 0.88 ERA and 0.71 WHIP through 41.0 innings pitched is down-right filthy.  Florida is currently half a game out of first place in the NL East (they are sporting the league's third best record), and Josh Johnson's dominance has more to do with the success as anything.

Candidates: Roy Halladay, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Marcum, Jorge De La Rosa

National League Manager of the Month: Edwin Rodriguez

The National League Manager of the Month Award is much more difficult to hand out than its American League counterpart.  Unlike the Padres last season, there is no major surprise to this point.  Out of 16 total NL teams, only 4 are currently above .500 and, given that stat prior to the season, not many people would have thought that the Marlins would be one of those 4 teams.  Edwin Rodriguez took over for Fredi Gonzalez midway through the 2010 season and since then has done a great job at keeping that club motivated.  Atlanta should right the ship and it is unlikely that only 4 National League teams finish the season above .500 but as of now Rodriguez has done the best managerial job.

Candidates: Tony LaRussa, Jim Tracy

NFL Draft Results

1. Carolina Panthers—Cam Newton, QB Auburn
2. Denver Broncos—Von Miller, LB Texas A&M
3. Buffalo Bills—Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
4. Cincinnati Bengals—A.J. Green, WR Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals—Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
6. Atlanta Falcons (from Cleveland Browns)—Julio Jones, WR Alabama
7. San Francisco 49ers—Aldon Smith, DE Missouri8. Tennessee Titans—Jake Locker, QB Washington9. Dallas Cowboys—Tyron Smith, OT USC
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington Redskins)—Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri11. Houston Texans—J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin12. Minnesota Vikings—Christian Ponder, QB FSU
13. Detroit Lions—Nick Fairley, DT Auburn14. St. Louis Rams—Robert Quinn, DE UNC15. Miami Dolphins—Mike Pouncey, G Florida
16. Washington Redskins (from Jacksonville Jaguars)—Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
17. New England Patriots—Nate Solder, OT Colorado
18. San Diego Chargers—Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
19. New York Giants—Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa21. Cleveland Browns (from Kansas City Chiefs)—Phil Taylor, DT Baylor22. Indianapolis Colts—Anthony Castanzo, OT Boston College
23. Philadelphia Eagles—Danny Watkins, G Baylor
24. New Orleans Saints—Cameron Jordan, DE California
25. Seattle Seahawks—James Carpenter, OT Alabama

26. Kansas City Chiefs (from Cleveland Browns, via Atlanta Falcons)—Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh

27. Baltimore Ravens—Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
28. New Orleans Saints (from New England Patriots)—Mark Ingram, RB Alabama

29. Chicago Bears—Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
30. New York Jets—Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple
31. Pittsburgh Steelers—Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St
32. Green Bay Packers—Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St


8/32 = 25% = Weak... sorry.

2011 NFL Mock Draft

1. Carolina Panthers—JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU Cam Newton, QB Auburn
2. Denver Broncos—Von Miller, LB Texas A&M
3. Buffalo Bills—Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
4. Cincinnati Bengals—A.J. Green, WR Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals—Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
6. Cleveland Browns—Julio Jones, WR Alabama
7. San Francisco 49ers—Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
8. Tennessee Titans—Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
9. Dallas Cowboys—Tyron Smith, OT USC
10. Washington Redskins—Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
11. Houston Texans—Robert Quinn, DE UNC
12. Minnesota Vikings—Jake Locker, QB Washington
13. Detroit Lions—Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
14. St. Louis Rams—Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
15. Miami Dolphins—Mike Pouncey, G Florida
16. Jacksonville Jaguars—DaQuan Bowers, DE Clemson
17. New England Patriots—J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
18. San Diego Chargers—Cameron Jordan, DE California
19. New York Giants—Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
21. Kansas City Chiefs—Nate Solder, OT Colorado
22. Indianapolis Colts—Andy Dalton, QB TCU
23. Philadelphia Eagles—Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
24. New Orleans Saints—Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple
25. Seattle Seahawks—Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
26. Baltimore Ravens—Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
27. Atlanta Falcons—Brooks Reed, DE Arizona
28. New England Patriots—Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
29. Chicago Bears—Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
30. New York Jets—Marvin Austin, DT UNC
31. Pittsburgh Steelers—Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St
32. Green Bay Packers—Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St

Is LeBron James an overrated defender?

This isn't a post aimed to simply criticize LeBron James.  LeBron is the best talent in the NBA.  It is not a debate over whether LeBron has the ability to be a great defender, it is about whether he is a great defender.  James is a two time reigning All-NBA First-Team Defensive player.  These awards are often more about reputation than actual analysis but this is a different debate.  While the First-Team is general composed of the five best defenders out of the big-name players, there are rarely players on the team that don't even deserve the consideration.  LeBron James is the exception.

LeBron has benefitted individually in the same ways that his team has benefitted collectively: by showing out against the scrubs and capitalizing on this "SportsCenter Era."  Given that reputation is based on what is heard and what is seen, ESPN has the ability to greatly influence perception.  By emphasizing LeBron James' chase down blocks and passing lane jumps, people see defensive dominance and begin to believe it.  The problem is that defensive ability is not all about chase down blocks and cheating off your man.  Defense is a function of athleticism, skill, and effort.  LeBron brings the athleticism and every now and then the effort, but, as an on-ball defender, the skill just is not there.

The biggest knock on the Heat this season has been that they dominate the non-playoff teams and have a .500 record against the elites; LeBron James' defense is the same way.  Understanding that every game must be considered (good opponents and bad), when determining who is best, one must emphasize how each player or team competes against the best opponents.  Struggling against the elites but killing the scrubs still gets Miami the #2 seed in the East but the dichotomy influences the team's projected playoff success (how they are valued against the best).  In LeBron's case, one must consider how he defends both backups and all-stars, but in determining who the league's top wing defenders are, one must give more value to those who guard the league's elite players the best.

James relies on his athleticism in most aspects of the game.  His physical prowess allows him to succeed against inferior players but when he faces the upper-class players, very few struggle.  In considering how the three best wings in the NBA (besides James) fare against LeBron—Anthony, Durant, and Pierce—the athletic Anthony, and Durant excel while the crafty Pierce struggles.  When guarded by James (versus a bench player), both Anthony and Durant see their scoring numbers increase.  Interestingly, when competing against James versus his season average, Carmelo Anthony's plus/minus increases from 2.4 to a whopping 11.0.  In is undeniable that LeBron shuts Paul Pierce down (Pierce statistics all fall by over 10% when LeBron is on the court).  Given that Pierce is well past his prime, he has lost much of his athleticism and now relies mostly on craftiness.  The matchup is perfect for James because he can use his biggest strength (his athleticism) to exploit Pierce's biggest weakness.

By no means is this meant as an argument that LeBron James is not a good defender.  Defense encompasses on-ball, off-ball, and open-court aspects.  Superior physical abilities allow LeBron to be one of the premier open-court defenders.  Additionally, his great court-vision makes James' off-ball defensive abilities some of the best in the NBA.  James' inconsistencies lie in his on-ball defense.  He has been and will continue to be an above average on-ball defender because his athleticism allows him to stifle sub-par and par players as-well as the mediocre athletes such as Pierce and Hedo Turkoglu.  When debating who the best at anything is, one must consider how the best compete against the best, and against the athletic, well-rounded wing players James does not only fail to excel, he is below average.

NBA Playoff Predictions

Ok, here are my playoff predictions.  Have at them.

First Round:
Expect Chicago, Miami, and Los Angeles to sweep.  Portland is the only upset I see happening (4 games to 2) but I expect New York to take Boston to at least six games and an upset would not shock me.  With Manu Ginobili's injury I see San Antonio as vulnerable and Memphis should give them a tough series.  Denver could take two games from Oklahoma City, same thing with Atlanta versus Orlando.

Second Round:
Chicago should see a tough challenge out of Orlando.  Noah is a solid player but Dwight Howard is out of his mind lately.  Derrick Rose will have just received the MVP award days earlier and a bitter Howard  should be expected to pull a '95 Hakeem and show the world who is really best.  Chicago will take the physical series in seven games behind its superior supporting cast.
The Celtics and the Heat will go six games.  I see Boston taking Game 2 in Miami and closing the series out at home.  Wade has struggled against the C's all season and Garnett owns Bosh.  A healthy Boston will pull it out but an injury to one of the O'Neal's could spell danger.
Oklahoma City should sweep San Antonio.  The injury bug has plagued the Spurs' big three in the second half of the season and they seem vulnerable.  The Thunder, with the addition of Perkins, are too tough on both sides of the ball and should coast.  If healthy, the Spurs could take a game but it is unlikely.
Assuming Bynum is healthy, which he says he should be, the Lakers should get by the Blazers.  Portland is a sneaky team and if Brandon Roy steps his game up they could give Los Angeles a run for their money.  With Bynum I see Portland taking a game maybe two.  If Bynum is out then I see it going seven games and possibly a Portland upset.

Conference Finals:
Chicago-Boston should be a great series.  The two teams put in a classic performance two years ago on route to a Boston win in seven games.  Chicago's young core has never won a playoff series and Boston's core has only lost one (last year's NBA finals).  I see this series as a concrete changing of the guard.  Rose versus Rondo will be the primary matchup but I expect Ray Allen to be the key for Boston.  Deng and Pierce, as well as Garnett and Boozer, match-up nicely against each other so the burden will fall on Bogans and Korver to keep Allen in check.  Expect Boston to push the Bulls to six or seven games before succumbing.
In last year's playoffs the Thunder sent the Lakers, and the rest of the league for that matter, a message, "We're coming."  Save for an inability to box Pau Gasol out at the buzzer in Game 6, OKC would have taken the eventual champs to seven games in a great match-up.  Oklahoma City has not only improved through experience, they have also added the biggest difference maker in the series, Kendrick Perkins.  The Perkins trade was great for Oklahoma City as a whole but it was a move made to counter Los Angeles.  The Lakers size hurt the Thunder last season and Perkins was continually the key for Boston in its match-ups with LA.  Artest plays Durant well and the Lakers will throw Brown, Barnes, and Bryant at Westbrook.  This series should go seven and an upset would not surprise me but expect Kobe's willpower and Odom's length and versatility to be the difference.

NBA Finals:
The Lakers have face the Bulls one time in playoff history, it did not go their way.  In 1991, Chicago beat LA four games to one behind the force that was Michael Jordan.  You can expect Chicago's new force Derrick Rose to make this into a difficult series.  Chicago will have home-court advantage and expect them to take Games 1 and 2 at home before being swept out in six.  Los Angeles's length should be the difference.  Give Kobe Bryant his 6th ring and his 3rd consecutive Bill Russell award.

Efficient Shooting Percentage

Basketball is arguably the most difficult sport of the Big 3 to develop complete statistics.  Baseball works on a play-by-play basis meaning that the only aspect of the game that is difficult to capture is defensive ability.  Football revolves around ball movement on a play-by-play basis so the only gap involves the off-ball interactions.  Unlike its peers, basketball involves fluid gameplay.  Inherently, a lack of separation between actions increases the difficulty of effectively capturing the quality of play with statistics.

In sports, nearly all statistics receive criticism.  More than any other sport, basketball statistics incite the most debate.  This is probably due to a number of factors: there are a high number of separate aspects of gameplay, different aspects can be difficult to differentiate at times, not all aspects of the game can be measured, how should different aspects be weighted against one another, and many more.  While large-scale statistics receive the most argumentation, shooting statistics are often the most misused.  The validity of standard shooting percentages is non-debatable, but the effectiveness of measuring players by them certainly is.  With increasingly developed shooting statistics comes decreased consensus over effectiveness.

While many different statistics exist, all seeming to take different approaches at assessing offensive efficiency, none attempt to assess offensive intelligence.  I decided to attempt to fill this gap.  It is nearly impossible to measure true offensive intelligence—can't measure whether a player "makes the right play or not"—but it is certainly possible to measure whether a player sets himself up to be successful.  A player who effectively sets himself up to succeed would be expect to shoot the most from the places where he shoots the best.  Using this logic, to measure offensive efficiency I used shooting percentages and percentage of shots taken from certain distances to calculate a total efficiency value.

First, I used hoopdata.com to break down a player's overall field goal percentage into selected shooting percentages, at the rim, in the paint (<10 feet), mid-range (10-15 feet), long 2-pointers (16-23 feet), and 3-point field goals (I used effective 3-point field goal percentage to add weight for difficulty).  I then calculated the percentage of total shots taken in each of the regions.  These two break downs told me how good a player was from a certain area and how often they shot from that area.  Next, I multiplied the two percentages to obtain a "efficiency value" for each area of the court.  I knew that it was efficient for a good free-throw shooter to get to the free-throw line more often so I then multiplied free throw percentage by total FT/FG to obtain an "efficiency value" for getting to the line.  Finally, I added the respective "values" to create an "Efficient Shooting Percentage."

As a sample set, I calculated the Efficient Shooting Percentage (ES%) for 40 of the NBA's top players using percentages at the time of the All-Star break.  Here is what I found (sorted by ES%):

While the results exhibit few major surprises, there are also a few enlightenments (See Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose).

What do you think?

MLB Predictions

Forgot to post this last week.  Preseason predictions:

Rose for MVP

There has always been heavy debate over what the true criteria for the MVP award is.  By definition, the award should be given to league's most valuable player.  More often than not, the applied criteria leans more towards the league's most outstanding player.  Sometimes the two are one in the same and no controversy arises, but most years, the winner of the Most Valuable Player award is not actually the most valuable player.  In recent years, prime examples have been Kobe Bryant over Chris Paul in 2007-08, Steve Nash over LeBron James in 2005-06, and Michael Jordan losing to Charles Barkley in 1992-93 and Karl Malone in 1996-97.

This season, little is up for debate.  Whether the criteria involves value or dominance, Derrick Rose deserves to become the youngest NBA MVP in history.  Rose ranks 8th in scoring, 10th in assists, and 3rd amongst point guards in rebounding.  He is one of only two players in the entire NBA to ranks in the top 10 in two major statistical categories (Dwight Howard).  He has also led the Bulls to a 44-18 record thus far (good enough for 2nd in the Eastern Conference).  His dominant production already stated, his value to his team in unrivaled.  Of the top nine teams in the NBA, only Chicago, Dallas, and Orlando had one player selected for the All-Star Game this season.  By all-star criteria, this would say that Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, and Dwight Howard are the most valuable players this season.  Giving further support to these "top 3," Chicago is 0-1 without Rose this season, Orlando has gone 1-2 without Howard, and Dallas went 2-7 without Nowitzki.  In terms of on-court impact on the team's success, Rose ranks 3rd in the league in usage rate behind only Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony; by comparison, Nowtizki ranks 12th and Howard ranks 17th.

While LeBron James' statistical season cannot be discounted, Derrick Rose has been the most outstanding player this season.  Additionally, Rose, Dwight Howard, and Dirk Nowitzki have been most valuable to their teams.  It is undeniable that the most outstanding player and one of the three most valuable players in the league deserves to take home the MVP award.  Justice will be served this season and Derrick Rose will become the youngest MVP in NBA history.

Influence of Good Executives

It is impossible to understate the potential influence, positive or negative, of a top executive in professional sports.  These executives undoubtedly have the most sway in the NBA.  Much like in most other arenas in society, poor jobs receive a lot more heat than good jobs receive praise.  Even casual NBA fans know of the disaster that was Isiah Thomas and the Knicks, but far fewer know about Sam Presti and R.C. Buford.  At the end of the day, players play the game, so how much influence do the executives have?  Kobe Bryant was the 13^th pick in the 1996 draft (behind Kerry Kittles and Antoine Walker), Amare Stoudemire went 9^th in 2002 (behind Drew Gooden and Chris Wilcox), Dirk Nowitzki was taken 9^th in 1998 (after Robert Traylor and Raef LaFrentz); should the executives that, in hindsight, blew those previous picks be blamed for their mistakes? Simply put, no, they should not.  Sometimes executives drop the ball.  More often, a sleeper is a sleeper and it is really no ones fault that the player snuck by.  While most of these front offices lie somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, which ones lie at the ends and how much influence do they actually have?

R.C. Buford has been the Team President of the San Antonio Spurs since 1997 and the team’s General Manager since 2002.  In the past 13 seasons under Buford, the Spurs have won a league best four NBA Championships.  Winning four out of thirteen championships is effectively considered a dynasty.  Each dynasty in basketball history has had its centerpiece (Russell, Johnson, Bird, Jordan, O’Neal, Duncan), but what separates these dynasties from every other team with an all-time great player is the supporting cast.  The second guy on each dynasty is a member of the NBA’s Top 50 Players of All-Time list—excluding Kobe Bryant because the list was released in 1996—; a remarkably telling fact (Russell>Cousy, Johnson>Abdul-Jabbar, Bird>McHale, Jordan>Pippen, O’Neal>Bryant*, Duncan>Robinson^).  The possible exception to this rule is the current Spurs dynasty under the leadership of the aforementioned R.C. Buford.  While Tim Duncan had a strong David Robinson in the first title run, the team has lacked a second dominant player since 2000.  What about the modern NBA can explain this change and why have the Spurs been so good at figuring it out?

Since the Lakers’ three-peat from 2000-2002, five different franchises have won the title: Spurs (’03, ’05, ’07), Pistons (’04), Heat (’06), Celtics (’08), and the Lakers (’09,’10).  Of these five teams, only the 2006 Heat fit the classic “Batman and Robin” model.  The new trend involves two formulas: one superstar with balanced surroundings (Spurs, Lakers), or a truly balanced team with no superstars but multiple studs (Pistons, Celtics).  Interestingly, in these eight seasons, the first formula has been more successful while it also seems to be the more difficult to achieve.  Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant were the centerpieces of their respective championship teams but why were the Spurs able to surround Duncan with championship talent and the Lakers the same with Bryant, while the Cavaliers, 76ers, Mavericks, Timberwolves, and Suns not able to do the same with their MVP centerpieces?

General Managers cannot be blamed for missing on sleeper picks in the draft, however then can be praised for catching them.  Outside of Tim Duncan, the Spurs central pieces over the last decade have been sleeper picks that R.C. Buford deserves praise for.  Tony Parker (28th pick), Manu Ginobili (57th), and more recently, George Hill (26th), and DeJuan Blair (37th), have all been sleeper picks that have turned into championship caliber players.  The Spurs have surrounded their superstar with solid late draft picks to aid his success.  By comparison, the Cavaliers surrounded LeBron James with: Shannon (later traded), Daniel Gibson, J.J. Hickson, Christian Eyenga, and Danny Green.  Basketball is a team sport and team support is a necessity for any level of player that is attempting to carry his team to a title.

Conversely, a poor front office can set a team back a number of years.  Isiah Thomas' failure as the General Manager of the Knicks was due to the terrible free agent signings he consistently made.  While poor decision-making in the free agent market can hinder a team's development, poor drafting can be equally as debilitating.  The poster-boy for poor draft choices in recent years has been Timberwolves GM David Kahn.  The Wolves are perennially one of the league's worst franchises and, while they are one of the youngest teams in the league, unlike the Thunder, they are not filled with young talent.  The main difference between Oklahoma City's development as a young franchise and Minnesota's (besides Kevin Durant) has been the high percentage of "hits" on first round draft picks for Oklahoma City compared to the high percentage of "misses" or "busts" for Minnesota.  Certain teams, like Portland with Greg Oden, are not to be blamed when draft decisions do not work out, but others, like Minnesota taking three point guards in the first 18 picks of the 2009 draft, are to be held accountable.

To illustrate the point, a redo of the 2009 draft, with a better General Manager, could transform Minnesota from a cellar-dwellar to a competitive team.  Minnesota held the four 1st-round picks (5, 6, 18, 28), and two 2nd-rounders (45, 47).  With those picks they selected Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Nick Calathes, and Henk Norel.  Of those six players, only two are currently on the roster and they combine both average only 19 minutes per game.  At the time of the draft, the roster consisted of: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Kevin Love, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, Corey Brewer, and Brian Cardinal.  Redoing the draft, the picks would be Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair, and Chase Budinger (trade 45th and 47th picks for 44th pick).  One year later, a pitiful Minnesota franchise turns into a competitive team with a starting lineup of Curry, DeRozan, Brewer, Love, and Jefferson, with a bench of Lawson, Budinger, Gomes, Smith, and Blair.  Or, if they continue to execute the Al Jefferson and Michael Beasley trades, a lineup of Lawson, Curry, DeRozan, Beasley, and Love, with a bench of Telfair, Brewer, Budinger, Smith and Blair.  With either lineup that is a team that can compete for the 8, 9, 10 spot in the Western Conference, something that is laughable now.

No team can be expected to hit on every draft pick, but the championship teams are the ones that hit on late picks and the cellar-dwellars are the ones who miss on lottery picks.  As important as players are to team success, the value of a good front office cannot be downplayed.

The Raptor

Sympathy for a Heatle

Current sports culture deems it morally wrong to feel anything but ill will towards anyone or anything related to the Miami Heat.  As much as you try to fight it, the Heatles, and their overwhelmed leader Erik Spoelstra, will always be there to drag the detestation right back out of you.  From "The Decision," to Chris Bosh publicly acting like his arrival was what the public actually cared about, to LeBron James' "karma" tweets, all the way to the most recent "Crygate" incident, there have been very few stories out of Miami this season that evoke any semblance of sympathy.


The Miami Heat have rewritten history this season.  Never has such a polarizing team been polarizing on such a diverse level.  In the past, villainous teams carried a certain stigma that was dependent on one characteristic.  Whether it has been the Yankees' elitist attitude, the Raiders' "bad boy" image throughout the 70s and 80s, or Duke's whiteness, there has always been a single characteristic that epitomized each polarizing team.  The Heat have broken that trend this season and have done something remarkable in the process, the entire franchise has become polarizing.  The team itself it too overconfident, the coach is too naive, the star is too cocky, the butler talks like he is the sidekick, the role players (who couldn't get a job anywhere else) get fined for inappropriate gestures and flagrant fouls, and for some reason, the franchise suddenly has fans.  Only one person associated with the Heat has remained out of his deserved spotlight and flown under the radar, I present to you, Dwyane Wade.


In a season where his game should have suffered after going from lone ranger to team player, Dwyane Wade has transformed his game better than LeBron James and Chris Bosh have combined.  By no measure is he having his best statistical season but he is average a career high shooting percentage and, for a team that has struggled rebounding the basketball, Wade is having a career year in crashing the boards.  While LeBron gets all of the attention, the Heat have actually followed the trends of Wade more than James.  Wade's statistics have been at their best this season in wins and the team clearly thrives on his leadership.


So why is the spotlight not on Wade, and more importantly, why does he seem impervious to the ridicule?  The easy explanation as to why the spotlight has not shone on him is that it has been too focused on LeBron's attention-whore-ness and Chris Bosh's pathetic-attempt-at-acting-like-I-seriously-think-it-is-the-"Big Three"-ness.  The deeper, more relevant explanation is that the spotlight has never really been on Wade.  Sure Dwyane has prominent good marketing deals with T-Mobile and Converse, and he certainly gets credit within basketball circles for his on-court excellence, but it is rare that a sure-fire top-5 player/talent in the NBA is not a household name.  He gets his due credit for leading the Heat to the title in 2006, but in all of the biggest headlines coming out of Miami that season, where the number 3 was supposed to be there was a 34, and where "Wade" was supposed to be there was "O'Neal."  It is not Dwyane's fault, nor is it the fault of the media.  Wade is a quiet guy and without a boisterous personality, it is difficult to grab the media focus (just ask Tim Duncan).


More importantly, why do none of these headlines criticizing the Heat ever seem to focus on Dwyane Wade?  Maybe it's because Wade does not deserve to be criticized...  The fact of the matter is that none of the Heat players deserve to be criticized for their production this season (besides a few terrible games by the raptor).  The only reason the on-court play has drawn criticism is because of the off-court self-promotion and over-confidence.  Big free-agent signees holding a press conference is not abnormal, neither is giving interviews as a group or even stating a desire to win titles (see Boston).  What is abnormal, is holding an hour-long special to announce your occupational choices, holding a 10,000 person in-arena party celebrating your arrival before you even fill out your roster, taking credit for successes but excusing the blame for failures, publicly telling the fans of a franchise that supported you whole-heartedly for 7 years that their subsequent humiliation can be chalked up to karma, and a coach trying to save his own job by throwing his players' reputations under the bus.  Notice that none of those focus in on Dwyane Wade.  Everything that the Heatles have been criticized for this season that Dwyane Wade has been a part of, has been a joint issue.


Not only has Wade not received independent criticism this season, but he hasn't deserved to.  He has been consistently effective on the court, he has kept his mouth shut off the court, he is undeniably one of the hardest workers in the game today, and he is a good role model.  Dwyane deserves no criticism, but rather he deserves sympathy.  He has kept his mouth shut even when you know he knows he should be getting the ball in crunch time instead of LeBron, he has not dropped a 1-18 in an important game on national television (a la Chris Bosh's world-class effort against the Bulls), and he didn't make a fool of himself before the season even started.  Most importantly, Wade is clearly upset by the criticism that he does not feel his team deserves.  After a tough loss to the Bulls on Sunday, Wade said "The Miami Heat are exactly what everyone wanted, losing games.  The world is better now because the Heat is losing."  The Heatles have become the villians of the league this season and it is tough to say that it isn't their own doing, but the fact of the matter is, Dwyane Wade did not sign up for the antagonist role and he clearly isn't fit for it.

Mike Tyson